Job  and Career Trends for IT Professionals - An editorial by Bob Langieri

e-mail resumes to: bob@excelsearch.com
 
Updated for Spring 2013

The job market for IT professionals has reached a low point - A job search can last more than 6 months! 

The IT job market has been going through some serious adjustments since late 1999.  The one sure thing that you can count on is change and what new skills will be in demand.  One other thing you can count on is that change will come faster and faster. The skills you knew in the past, would keep you in demand for 10 or 15 years or more. Now, not  all, but most of what you worked on in the past year will either be obsolete or automated or a built-in part of a software update and your unique skills may be old hat or not as important. Not to worry as long as you are constantly re-inventing yourself and learning the new tools as they are becoming in demand.  More on this later under new skills to have.

The Economy

Outsourcing, off-shoring and company mergers have hit new highs that we were not expecting. We have been in a global recession for the last 3+ years and there are mixed opinions about whether or not we are out of the woods yet. Every day someone ask me if I see things changing.  My opinion is formed from what I see, hear, read from the industry and the business news and what I hear economists say. The Obama Tarp spending plan was supposed to keep unemployment at about 6% and instead, our unemployment rate went to 9% and then over 10% during 2010. As of November 2011, the US unemployment rate has eased back to 9.0%,  and just recently went below 8%, but is this the new normal? As of August 2012, we have had 42 straight months of unemployment over 8%. Since then the unemployment rate has hovered around 7.9% to 7.7%, but this does not include those who have given up looking or those who are working part-time and looking for full-time work, otherwise the true unemployment rate is closer 15%.  

A Political Crossroads - In November, Americans decided to continue to have government focused on social issues and ignore our record breaking debt approaching $17 Trillion or make the decision to put our finances in order, ease laws that burden our companies, restrict our progress in energy, manufacturing, job creation and prosperity. We have the highest corporate tax rates in the world and companies like Apple, IBM, Microsoft are unwilling to repatriate billions of dollars to the US only to be double taxed, so they continue to re-invest in operations outside the USA.  The EPA and other agencies continue to pile on new regulations to discourage expansion of companies in the US and make it more difficult for small businesses to compete. We are becoming a country where those who make it are supporting the growing population of those relying on the government for a hand-out and not a hand up.

For now, I see our country in a very slow job recovery and potential second recession (double-dip recession) as our government focuses on more spending on social programs, healthcare, increasing the debt limit to unprecedented levels. This is causing concern to companies who are hedging away from hiring, anticipating slow sales and therefore tightening their belts on all spending. With increased US dept, the value of the dollar is taking a big hit as our dollar is worth less. This is the most basic reason that oil prices are so high. This could help exports, but since we have shifted so much manufacturing overseas, it is hard to take advantage of that.  In addition, other countries are concerned over our out-of-control spending, so they are reluctant to buy more of our debt. The banking debacle will take some time to normalize and begin lending again all thanks to the Congress forcing banks to lend money on risky loans (started with the end of the Clinton Administration). Fannie Mae bundled these loans and sold them to Wall Street and Wall Street sold them to investors including other countries like China. When defaults started happening, the whole mess started to unravel. Panicked, the government forced the TARP bailouts and government now became involved in business. Many economists felt that the government should of let some of these businesses fail or go through bankruptcy and that the "free markets" would sort things out. Some felt we could not let some of these organizations fail. Who's right? Only history will tell. 

Back to jobs and hiring, I strongly believe that across all political lines, we need to slow down government spending, offer companies tax breaks to add jobs, or special tax breaks for bringing jobs back to USA from off-shore. Penalties for using H1-B or completely eliminating H1-B program.  I estimate there are 350,000 to 700,000 H1 visa IT professionals currently working on projects in the USA, taking jobs away from US citizens.  Right now, while unemployment is above 10% (actual claims), 12.+% in California, true unemployment according to the US Department of Labor is more like 17 - 19% when you include those who have used up their unemployment, people who don't qualify for unemployment and those who have just given up. There are actually programs like the Social Security Disability Act encouraging workers who are 55+ to go on permanent disability because it is unlikely that they can retrain fro a new career at that age.  As they go on Disability, they are no-longer counted in the unemployment numbers, making the unemployment rate seem like it is improving.

So when will jobs return?

I am encouraged that I am begining to see some signs of improvement, but it is not enough to get excited about.  It could be 6 to 12 months before we see some positive changes and they may be only marginal. In 18 - 24 months we could be breathing a lot easier and grateful for the jobs we will have. In the meantime, I expect to see more employers begin to use part-time contractors, or short projects until they have enough confidence to add to headcounts. I see the number of IBM System i - AS400 shops remain the same or possibly lose a little ground, while I see IBM Power Systems based on AIX to increase dramatically primarily in large-scale data centers where companies deploy 6 or more AIX based Servers. These large scale shops usually make a good case for outsourcing a data center to an IBM Global Services or Dell Services (Perot) as again companies try to lower their costs. Don't get me wrong, there are a few hundred thousand IBM System i  - AS400 RPG environments very invested and committed to the platform.  These include the largest of the large banks, retailers, manufacturers, shipping/logistics, supply chain, pharmaceutical, entertainment, internet businesses, etc. But the reality is that Windows .Net framework is pervasive as is Oracle, Java and now PHP.

Projects had been put on hold as companies were and still are looking to save every dollar they can. The new IBM Power System combines the IBM System i (OS-i5) and the IBM System p (AIX) offers companies tremendous opportunities to maintain their hardware and software investment and the flexibility of running multiple environments in multiple partitions. The IBM AIX is gaining ground in the UNIX world and is more pervasive than most System i5-AS400 professionals realize. The latest version of the OS (6.1 through 7.1) now includes WebSphere and many open-source tools. You can now run PHP open-source systems on the iSeries and that may expand the acceptance of the IBM Power Systems and System i.  IBM has stated that it expects to capture a bigger piece of the SMB (Small-Medium Businesses) market and that it expects to earn the biggest part of it's overall revenue from this market which is the System i market. My biggest concern is that when companies hire IT Directors and Managers who have not been familiar with the IBM i - AS400 platform. It seems that the first thing they want to do is move the company to SAP or Oracle and when that happens, the iSeries developers are gradually let go and replaced with SAP or Oracle people. These implementations usually become horror stories with SAP implementations costing from $50-$60+million and up. Managers select what they are familiar with and not necessarily what is the best solution for the company. Another scenario I have seen in smaller IBM i-iSeries shops is a company hiring a Network "type" MIS Manager and they are not application or business oriented, but are only versed in Microsoft networks and Sequel Server. They convince management that the Microsoft solutions are better than the IBM solutions and the company listens. Halfway through a migration crisis, the manager changes jobs leaving the company with a committed migration that "half-baked" and no way out but to find people to finish it. I am sure you have either seen or heard of these scenarios as well.

New Dynamics - Now Not So New!   -      Out-sourcing, Off-shoring  and Mergers & Acquisitions
Will things return to the days of 1998 - 1999? Probably not.  While the recession ended and we are still in a very weak recovery, there are some new dynamics that have come into play while we were asleep at the wheel.  After mergers and acquisitions, companies eager to save money and improve their profit picture and stock price have looked to more and more out-sourcing and off-shore services of a wide range of IT jobs. First it was Y2K remediation using H1-B visa holders to help re-program date issues in programs. Then H1-B people were used to do e-business projects because companies were led to believe that the existing US market of IT professionals didn't have the current technical skills to develop e-business applications.  The Asian companies realized that they hit a goldmine and they used the best lobbyists to convince our lawmakers to increase the number of H1-B visa holders to allow more overseas programmers and developers to do the work of American IT developers at a lower cost. American companies looking for ways to bring more profit to the bottom line, realized they could set up their own off-shore software companies and many have. They can find labor at 40-55% discount over U.S. labor cost, and sometimes more. In the Philippines, skilled RPG Programmers are getting $12.00 - $18.00/hr. Same is true in India except India is focusing more on high bill rate skills like Oracle, SAP, Business Intelligence.  This has had a dramatic affect on contract programming rates. This exodus of IT jobs to foreign shores will surely take it toll on the number of IT openings in America. 

Mergers - A Major Culprit of Job Losses - Mergers & Acquisitions

While everyone is blaming off-shoring and out-sourcing for job losses, we tend to overlook that companies are merging and acquiring competitors (Mergers & Acquisitions) at the fastest rate in history. Companies feel that they are insuring their future and revenue growth by acquiring competitors or companies that could benefit them strategically. Every week we read about company mergers and there is always a reference to jobs that will be eliminated as a result of the merger. Companies don't need two CFO's, two IT departments, two accounting departments, etc. While it could take two or three years or longer to eliminate one of the two IT departments, it will happen eventually. Also, Private Equity groups focus on acquiring underperforming  companies and restructuring them to improve profits and sell them at a later date to the highest bidder at a profit. Employees are expendable regardless of their loyalty or value.

You might not like the facts, but we must learn to live with them. Companies that make up the stock and retirement portfolios for all of us are doing what is best for the shareholders and trying to increase profits.  You can complain, boycott foreign goods, but there are fewer choices of goods made in America. It is hard to complain about the low prices of items like TV's, computers, electronics and other technologies that we now take for granted, like cell phones, PDA's, iPods, GPS's for our cars. This past year though, manufacturing has been coming back to America as labor rates overseas have gone up and the time-to-market has become critical as companies don't want to carry high inventories. They would rather pay a little more for that flexibility.

RPG is Dead

According to one IBM'er at COMMON, "RPG is dead." Yes "the old RPG is dead. Every year we hear this yet many of us make our living using the most reliable flexible development tool in the industry. If you are still using RPG 400 or RPG III, you are living in the past."  In other words, career wise, you are walking on thin ice.  If you and your company are not taking advantage of the better tools that are available for the IBM i platform, then you have only yourself to blame when you and the IBM System i are replaced with another platform and software from the likes of Oracle, SAP or MS-SQL Server. When Steve Will - Chief Scientist for the IBM i spoke at my OCEAN User Group in January 2013, he said that the reality is users feel that green screens mean old technology and if you don't start showing users that the IBM i does GUI (there are lot's of tools like looksoftware, Profound Logic, BCD, ASNA Wings) that convert your green screen to GUI stile drop down menus, calendars, intuitive search, etc. You and your IT management need to understand the importance of taking advantage of new tools at every opportunity. In the Microsoft world, Visual Basic developers insist that their companies upgrade to the latest version within 6 months of a release update. The best way to retain staff is to stay ahead of the curve by using the latest tools. In the RPG world, companies take the attitude of "if it runs okay, don't change it. There are still many shops using systems that have RPG III and RPG400 code. With Oracle, .Net framework and other popular software packages, companies anticipate a new release and embrace it as soon as possible. If you are not working with RPG IV and Free Form RPG, then you need to convince your manager to start updating your systems before you both make yourself and the System i platform expendable and antiquated. It is critical that you learn the Rational tools like RDP and RSE as well as start learning RPG Open Access. Learn PHP, HTML5, Web Services, learn how to implement Mobile Apps with either Android or Apple iOS.  You don't run Windows 3.1 or Windows 98 on your new PC so why would you run software written for the System 38 on a new System i or an iSeries?

So What Can You Do?

Start by getting your head out of the sand and not being angry. Instead, find out what new technologies will make you more valuable. What business skills will make you more valuable to your company.  Maybe get your MBA or BS degree if you still lack that. Make an effort to take some evening classes at your local college.  Get to user group meetings once a month to keep your finger on the pulse of the technical market. You can take a variety of paths on the technical or business side, but pursue learning the leading edge or bleeding edge of what your path is. While you might be able to take classes in advanced areas, if your company is still having you do work that involves obsolete technology, then get off the sinking ship and look for a new job that will afford you the advanced opportunities. You can upgrade your developer skills through on-line classes in SQL, RPG IV, XML, Java, etc.  Also, keep in mind that the other technologies pay about 15% or more in annual salary than the traditional RPG developer.  You can bridge that gap by getting your skills current and even match it if you can also add Java, WebSphere, Web Services, XML, VB.Net and similar skills to your resume.

What technical trends to watch?

Are Companies Hiring?

The reality is that there are very few openings right now and when a position does open, they usually get filled very quickly. There are more well qualified people competing for fewer openings. Still, company hiring authorities are being very selective in hiring very specific and hard to find skill sets. When you get an interview, you need to be able to determine the real needs and show the interviewer how and why you really are qualified. Make comparisons of your skills or industry knowledge to what their job description is looking for.

Are there jobs? Yes, but sometimes they open one week and then there is a corporate-wide hiring freeze a week or two later.  The actual number of openings in any category is dramatically reduced compared to the market 4 - 5 years ago. We will probably never see the anomaly we saw in 1998 - 1999 due to Y2K remediation.  The cutbacks had been across all platforms, all technologies, and all the major metropolitan areas of the country.  There are approximately 25% fewer IT jobs in the US market today than there were in 1998 through the beginning of 2000. The types of openings we see have changed dramatically. There are fewer traditional programming positions and system operators.  There has been job growth in the areas of Project Management, Business Analysts, Business Intelligence, Data Warehousing, CRM specialists, Data Architects, Software Quality Assurance, Sr. Systems Administrators in enterprise environments, Certified Network Administrators, Network Engineers skilled in Microsoft Server 2003, e-mail Administrators, Unix-AIX Administrators, Linux skills. We are seeing a slower demand for skills in the areas of SAP, Oracle/Peoplesoft, former JD Edwards (now EnterpriseOne), and a variety of other ERP software tools, Web Services tools, Internet based e-business tools, and technologies like RFID, EDI, XML. We believe that Microsoft .Net and WebSphere will be dominant technologies utilizing a variety of tools that enable them to become key technologies.

We have survived the many ups and downs of the IT job market since 1973 and so will you if you remember to keep re-inventing yourself and make yourself the most important member of your company's  IT staff. 

Having a good resume is more critical than ever to get into the interview.  You must show that your skills are up to date and you are capable of still learning. Good interview skills are also more critical now than ever before. Competition for good IT jobs is still keen. You must differentiate yourself and not with a pink or green resume. Your resume is the key to getting an interview.  It must be easy to read, have the right content, the right "buzz-words" in the right places, not be vague, and have a professional format. Take nothing for granted. When you do get the interview, be prepared, be early, dress professionally (suit), be well groomed.  Bring extra copies of your resume in case you are asked to meet with other managers or executives.  Learn to give a two minute capsule presentation of your experience and skills. Be prepared to answer questions like "what has been your most challenging accomplishment and why?" or "what are your goals for the next five years?" or "why do you think you are right for this position?"  Don't be thrown off by group interviews as they are fairly common and the people in the group may likely be managers and peers. 

Background Checks

In today's employment market, background checks are becoming routine. It is important that you are accurate and forthcoming of your job history, month and year on resumes and application forms, job titles, degrees, and salary. Some companies only do a criminal check which includes DMV and criminal convictions. Some check credit and verify degrees.  Expect it, even if you are a contractor.

We are committed to work with you to find the right position with good companies.  We are here for the long haul and satisfied candidates and companies are the key to our success. Please understand, that like many of the companies getting overloaded with resumes, we are getting overwhelmed as well, making it difficult to get back to everyone.  I apologize in advance, because it is not our intention to treat your search lightly.  We want to assist everyone and answer all of the questions and exchange ideas about potential career opportunities. Due to the high volume of e-mails and resumes, it is impossible to get back to everyone quickly, but we will do our best. 

 Bob Langieri - Director

copyright 2013 - Excel Technical

See my latest presentation on Job & Salary Trends under my articles link,
 
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